The Titans are one of them.
Yes begin in the Titans Yates hits on the obvious
reasons the uncertainty surrounding Jake Locker, the necessity
of Justin Hunter to become "a refined route-runner who can beat
physicality with his length and burst" and the potential for a mismatch
between the Titans' defensive personnel and the new 3-4 scheme of coordinator
Ray Horton. If all three of those things go badly, the Titans most certainly
will regress. From closer range and admittedly tainted by the default offseason
optimism, I've got a better outlook in some of these departments. Locker is
undoubtedly the biggest question, and I can't say he's the answer until he
shows he is. I am, however, buying into the idea that Horton and the defensive
staff can get better playout of the team's personnel and won't waste a guy
like Jurrell Casey. I also regard the Titans' offensive playmakers in a
better light than Yates does. While Hunter and Bishop Sankey have to
prove themselves, I think they could be good. And while Yates mentions Kendall
Wright as a bright spot, he left out Delanie Walker who will
also be a regular danger. Nate Washington isn't a long-term piece,
but he can produce this year. A lot can change in record from one year to the
next. We see it every year in the NFL. Everything is conceivable right now --
the Titans can soar to a big improvement from 7-9, they can plummet to the 5-11
range Yates sees or they can be average again. The quarterback question is a
big one, of course. Better coaching and what should be an easy schedule are
factors we should be conscious of as positives as well. Casey posted 10.5 sacks
as a 4-3 defensive tackle a year ago. He was constantly disruptive and emerged
as the team’s best defensive player. The Titans are shifting to a 3-4 this year,
but have repeatedly emphasized they won't be changing what Casey does.
Defensive line coach Giff Smith told me last week that Casey should
face more one-on-ones in the new system. "He's a heck of a
player," Smith said. "I told Case when we got here, he'll actually
get more one-on-one situations out of our spacing than he would out of a 4-3
spacing. ...Our deal is to get him in as many as we can. I think he puts stress
on offensive linemen, he's a difficult guy to block. ... "It's more of a
loaded box where you have to man up. It looks like single coverage on the
outside whereas when you're in 4-3 spacing, sometimes your backers cheat back
to 5, 5 1/2 yards and they're on the second level and you've only got four guys
up front. They can bump, they can chip, they can double (to slow you down).
Where in a 3-4 with what Ray is doing and walking guys up, they have to man and
they don't have the time to be able to chip and climb." That the sides are
talking hardly guarantees a deal gets done. It’s a good sign the Titans don't
feel like they need to see how Casey plays in this system before holding such
talks. It's a good sign Casey isn't saying he wants to see how it goes before
these discussions. The Titans would like to lock up a key cog long term, and
Casey's price now will be at least a little lower than it will be in January if
he has another big season. Casey can get long-term security and not have to
worry about suffering an injury before signing and costing himself big dollars.
What is he worth? According to Over the Cap, the top three total contract
values for defensive tackles are Detroit’s Ndamukong
Suh ($12.9 average per year with $23.3 million guaranteed), Tampa Bay’s Gerald
McCoy ($11 million average per year with $20.8 guaranteed) and Cincinnati’s Geno
Atkins ($10.6 million and $20.8 million guaranteed). I could see Casey
coming in below those three, but ahead of guys such as Cleveland’s Ahtyba Rubin ($8.8 million
average per year with $18 million guaranteed) and Buffalo’s Kyle
Williams ($7.3 million and $8.75 million guaranteed). I’d guess the right
number is an average around $9-10 million with a guarantee in the high teens. Hope
they can grow up.
